IFS Green Budget 2019

The IFS Green Budget 2019, in association with Citi and the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Christine Farquharson and Paul Johnson, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Sajid Javid as he prepares for his first Budget.

Chapter 1. Global outlook: sea change | Chapter

In this part of Citi’s contribution to the Green Budget, we analyse the causes of the global downturn and discuss the role of fiscal and monetary policy in addressing it.

Chapter 2. Recent trends to the UK economy | Chapter

In this chapter, we analyse how the different elements of the UK economy have performed since last autumn, highlighting the resilience of consumer spending and the poor performance of business investment.

Chapter 3. UK economic outlook in four Brexit scenarios | Chapter | Presentation and Slides

In this chapter, we set out forecasts for the UK economy under four distinct Brexit scenarios: continued uncertainty (our base case); a no-deal scenario accompanied by significant fiscal loosening; a negotiated Brexit deal passed through the current parliament; or a second referendum on a Brexit deal negotiated by a Labour-led coalition, culminating in a vote to remain.

Chapter 4. Public finances: where are we now? | Chapter

In this chapter, we produce an updated baseline forecast for the public finances and look ahead to analyse a variety of scenarios for the medium term.

Chapter 5. Fiscal targets and policy: which way next? | Chapter | Presentation and Slides

This chapter begins by considering the case for having fiscal targets at all and then discusses the government’s current fiscal targets and the rules proposed by the opposition Labour party.

Chapter 6. Spending Round 2019: keeping perspective | Chapter | Presentation and Slides

In this chapter, we describe the announcements in this year’s spending pound and emphasise the importance of keeping perspective.

Chapter 7. Barriers to delivering new domestic policies | Chapter | Presentation and Slides

In this chapter, we analyse these barriers to progress in Mrs May’s government and the extent to which they will continue to affect policymaking in different areas in the years to come.

Chapter 8. Options for cutting direct personal taxes and supporting low earners | Chapter | Presentation and Slides

This chapter sets out the impacts of the prime minister’s proposed tax policies.

Chapter 9. A road map for motoring taxation | Chapter | Presentation and Slides

In this chapter, we examine both how satisfactorily tax policy treats motoring as we find it today and how it might be made ready for the future.

Appendices | Download appendices

Appendix A. Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds

Appendix B. Abbreviations