Fiscal rules and frameworks

In Paul's final episode, he speaks with incoming IFS Director Helen Miller about the big economic pressures facing the UK.

The chancellor has to somehow reconcile tax and spending, but both her own Labour MPs and the Tory opposition are still living in a dream world 

IFS researchers respond to Scottish fiscal announcements. 

The chancellor has pledged an extra £1.2 billion annually for FE by 2028-29. But will this be enough to reverse a decade of cuts?

Which public services are the relative winners and losers from Rachel Reeves’ multi-year 2025 Spending Review?

IFS Director Paul Johnson responds to the Chancellor's Spending Review. 

Updated forecasts for tax revenues and benefit spending imply a more challenging funding outlook for the Scottish Government.

The 'Be the Chancellor' tool, built by IFS researchers in partnership with Nesta, illustrates key choices and fiscal challenges Rachel Reeves faces.

Public finance data out today show that borrowing overshot the official forecast made at last month's Spring Statement by £15 billion.

What were the decisions and trade-offs made by Chancellor Reeves?

Debt is forecast to stabilise by 2027-28, meeting the debt rule by a narrow margin of £15 billion.

Government debt is forecast to be stable within five years, only just meeting the second fiscal rule.

Today, the Office for National Statistics published new figures on government revenues, spending and borrowing.

Rachel Reeves gives herself so little room for manoeuvre that she creates costly uncertainty when the choice is obvious: raise taxes or cut spending 

What are the Chancellor’s options if – and it is very much an if – the upcoming Spring Forecast puts her on track to miss her fiscal targets?

New data shows borrowing for this year running higher than forecast at last October’s Budget.

The OBR forecast will underpin the Chancellor’s decisions at the next Spring Forecast.

This response to a UK parliamentary inquiry assesses how the Scottish Government is funded, including via the Barnett formula and Fiscal Framework.

Rising interest rates could put the government on track to miss its fiscal rules. What are the Chancellor’s options? 

If a recent rise in borrowing costs proved persistent, it will make it even harder for the Chancellor to continue to meet her main fiscal rule.