Fiscal rules and frameworks

Our analysis so far of the Spring Forecast 2026.

The Spring Forecast is unlikely to feature policy changes but could highlight risks to the public finances for the year ahead.

An IFS event discussing new research on the UK fiscal framework, its limitations, and options for longer-term reform.

Why UK fiscal rules drive “headroom” politics, policy churn and rising debt, and how a dashboard approach could improve sustainability and debate.

The UK’s approach to fiscal policy needs a rethink. The current framework, based around a set of pass–fail fiscal rules, isn’t working well. 

We now expect higher borrowing in every year before 2029–30, but fiscal 'headroom' is more than doubled to £22 billion in 2029–30.

We consider the implications of different potential changes to departmental spending plans at the upcoming Budget.

We explore the UK’s public finances and why further fiscal consolidation may be needed to meet the government’s borrowing and debt rules.

We set out the challenges facing the Chancellor from a changing economic and policy outlook, and explore options to stabilise policy going forwards.

Against a challenging backdrop, the Budget will be a key moment to announce measures needed to maintain and bolster bond market confidence. 

A presentation on Scotland’s public finances given at the SNP’s 2025 party conference.

A presentation on the fiscal situation, implications for councils and upcoming council funding reforms.

All the analysis from our IFS Green Budget 2025 to date, funded by the Nuffield Foundation and Barclays.

Should the OBR publish only one forecast a year? Or are there better ways to discourage Chancellors from excessive policy tinkering?

In Paul's final episode, he speaks with incoming IFS Director Helen Miller about the big economic pressures facing the UK.

The chancellor has to somehow reconcile tax and spending, but both her own Labour MPs and the Tory opposition are still living in a dream world 

IFS researchers respond to Scottish fiscal announcements. 

The chancellor has pledged an extra £1.2 billion annually for FE by 2028-29. But will this be enough to reverse a decade of cuts?

IFS Director Paul Johnson responds to the Chancellor's Spending Review. 

Which public services are the relative winners and losers from Rachel Reeves’ multi-year 2025 Spending Review?