Fiscal rules and frameworks

Updated forecasts for tax revenues and benefit spending imply a more challenging funding outlook for the Scottish Government.

The 'Be the Chancellor' tool, built by IFS researchers in partnership with Nesta, illustrates key choices and fiscal challenges Rachel Reeves faces.

Public finance data out today show that borrowing overshot the official forecast made at last month's Spring Statement by £15 billion.

What were the decisions and trade-offs made by Chancellor Reeves?

Debt is forecast to stabilise by 2027-28, meeting the debt rule by a narrow margin of £15 billion.

Government debt is forecast to be stable within five years, only just meeting the second fiscal rule.

Today, the Office for National Statistics published new figures on government revenues, spending and borrowing.

Rachel Reeves gives herself so little room for manoeuvre that she creates costly uncertainty when the choice is obvious: raise taxes or cut spending 

What are the Chancellor’s options if – and it is very much an if – the upcoming Spring Forecast puts her on track to miss her fiscal targets?

New data shows borrowing for this year running higher than forecast at last October’s Budget.

The OBR forecast will underpin the Chancellor’s decisions at the next Spring Forecast.

This response to a UK parliamentary inquiry assesses how the Scottish Government is funded, including via the Barnett formula and Fiscal Framework.

Rising interest rates could put the government on track to miss its fiscal rules. What are the Chancellor’s options? 

If a recent rise in borrowing costs proved persistent, it will make it even harder for the Chancellor to continue to meet her main fiscal rule. 

The UK Budget has improved the Scottish funding outlook, but tough choices loom down the line 

The Chancellor has chosen to borrow for a large top-up to day-to-day spending in the near term, but spending plans are set to tighten after.

On the new measure (PSNFL) debt is set to fall from 2027-28, but only just, rather than more decisively as under the previous forecast.

IFS Director Paul Johnson responds to the overall picture for taxation, spending and the public finances in the Autumn 2024 Budget.

We explore the options the Chancellor has in the forthcoming Budget.

The new Chancellor faces a difficult fiscal inheritance. Her choices on tax and spending at this first Budget could define the rest of the parliament.