The IFS Green Budget 2021 is produced in association with Citi and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Chancellor aims to secure a lasting recovery and deliver on the government’s other objectives and priorities.
Separate chapters, as well as the full report, are available below.
Launch event video
Slides from the event are available here.
Chapter 1. Global economic outlook: from rebound to recovery | Chapter
In this chapter, Citi look at the potential for a post-COVID economic recovery and offer forecasts for economic growth.
Chapter 2. UK economic outlook: the future isn’t what it used to be | Chapter
This chapter looks at the near-term outlook for economic activity, the medium-term challenges for the recovery, the outlook for the labour market and inflation.
Chapter 3. Outlook for the public finances | Chapter
We look at the implications for borrowing of our central forecast under current tax and spending plans.
Chapter 4. Rewriting the fiscal rules | Chapter
This chapter discusses the design of fiscal rules, sets out the key features of a well-designed set of fiscal targets and makes some recommendations for the UK.
Chapter 5. Spending Review 2021: plans, promises and predicaments | Chapter
We look at the upcoming Spending Review and lay out some of the options and trade-offs facing the Chancellor.
Chapter 6. Pressures on the NHS | Chapter
This chapter looks at the health of the NHS, pandemic-related pressures on the NHS and the impact of the new announcement on health and social care funding.
Chapter 7. What’s happened and what’s next for councils? | Chapter
We focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on English and Welsh councils’ finances, and the implications for services.
Chapter 8. Tax policies to help achieve net zero carbon emissions | Chapter
This chapter looks at the government's green tax policies and their impact on reaching the net zero target by 2050.
Chapter 9. Employment and the end of the furlough scheme | Chapter
We focus on the labour market impacts of COVID-19 and the impact of ending the furlough scheme.