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IFS Green Budget 2021


The IFS Green Budget 2021 is produced in association with Citi and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Chancellor aims to secure a lasting recovery and deliver on the government’s other objectives and priorities.

Separate chapters, as well as the full report, are available below. 

Launch event video

Slides from the event are available here. 

(You can download the Citi disclosures for Ben Nabarro here and Christian Schulz here.)


Chapter 1. Global economic outlook: from rebound to recovery | Chapter

In this chapter, Citi look at the potential for a post-COVID economic recovery and offer forecasts for economic growth.

Chapter 2. UK economic outlook: the future isn’t what it used to be | Chapter

This chapter looks at the near-term outlook for economic activity, the medium-term challenges for the recovery, the outlook for the labour market and inflation.

Chapter 3. Outlook for the public finances | Chapter

We look at the implications for borrowing of our central forecast under current tax and spending plans.

Chapter 4. Rewriting the fiscal rules | Chapter

This chapter discusses the design of fiscal rules, sets out the key features of a well-designed set of fiscal targets and makes some recommendations for the UK.

Chapter 5. Spending Review 2021: plans, promises and predicaments | Chapter

We look at the upcoming Spending Review and lay out some of the options and trade-offs facing the Chancellor.

Chapter 6. Pressures on the NHS | Chapter

This chapter looks at the health of the NHS, pandemic-related pressures on the NHS and the impact of the new announcement on health and social care funding.

Chapter 7. What’s happened and what’s next for councils? | Chapter

We focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on English and Welsh councils’ finances, and the implications for services.

Chapter 8. Tax policies to help achieve net zero carbon emissions | Chapter

This chapter looks at the government's green tax policies and their impact on reaching the net zero target by 2050. 

Chapter 9. Employment and the end of the furlough scheme | Chapter

We focus on the labour market impacts of COVID-19 and the impact of ending the furlough scheme.

More on this topic

Book chapter
Press release
This year’s historic, and manifesto-breaking, announcements of tax rises will increase the UK’s tax take to its highest sustained level in peacetime. Spending will settle at 42% of national income, more than 2% above its pre-pandemic level and its highest level in ‘normal times’ since 1985.