Scotland

IFS researchers respond to Scottish fiscal announcements. 

Updated forecasts for tax revenues and benefit spending imply a more challenging funding outlook for the Scottish Government.

Today’s SFC report highlights the fiscal challenges facing the Scottish and UK governments over coming decades.

Mitigating the two-child limit policy would be an effective way to reduce child poverty, but designing an effective policy is not straightforward. 

This report analyses the Scottish Government’s Budget for 2025–26, with chapters on tax strategy, school spending, public sector pay and more.

At this online event, IFS researchers presented their analysis of the Scottish Budget proposals and the wider Scottish tax and spending context.

Funding and spending growth are set to slow. Without a top-up, health spending will be flat in 2025–26 and tricky trade-offs elsewhere loom too.

How have public sector pay and employment changed in Scotland in recent years and what are the implications of those changes?

Scotland’s schools are relatively well funded. Falling pupil rolls and workforce planning represent both challenges and opportunities going forwards. 

Council tax in Scotland – as in England – is out of date, regressive and distortionary. How should it be reformed, and what would the effects be?

Scotland’s Tax Strategy is welcome but says little concrete about tax policy. And some actual tax policy is divorced from any sensible strategy. 

In-year top-ups mean big increases in Scottish NHS spending this year – but that means plans for 2025–26 now look relatively less generous.

How will the latest plans for spending in 2024–25 boost the amount that the Scottish Government has to spend next year and beyond?

This response to a UK parliamentary inquiry assesses how the Scottish Government is funded, including via the Barnett formula and Fiscal Framework.

Shona Robison’s budget speech failed to set out a long-term plan for growth-enhancing reforms

Our initial response to the Scottish Government’s Budget for 2025-26.

How is the NHS in Scotland performing, and what does this mean for the Scottish Budget?

The UK Budget has improved the Scottish funding outlook, but tough choices loom down the line 

Falls in funding for home students, a decline in international enrolments and higher labour costs put Scottish university finances under pressure.

Scotland’s income tax rises have likely increased tax avoidance and migration – but the size of the effects is uncertain.