The economic, fiscal and funding outlook

Understand this issue

Biggest welfare saving fiscal events (policy measures targeted at working-age and children)

data item

Today it was confirmed that the changes to welfare represent a £4.2bn net saving by 2029-30 (2025-26 prices). 

26 March 2025

How important is the OBR forecast?

podcast

The OBR forecast will underpin the Chancellor’s decisions at the next Spring Forecast.

12 February 2025

Change in selected departmental capital budgets since 2007–08

data item

The Ministry of Justice saw the biggest cuts to its capital budget over the 2010s, but then has seen the largest relative increases since.

11 February 2025

Policy analysis

Spring Statement 2025: initial IFS response

comment

In response to deteriorating global economic conditions, Rachel Reeves chose to fine-tune her spending plans to continue to meet her fiscal rules. 

26 March 2025

Spending & revenues as a share of national income: out-turn and March 2025 forecast

data item

Government spending in 2029-30 is set to remain 4% of national income above its pre-pandemic level.
 

26 March 2025

Current budget as a share of national income: out-turn and October 2024 forecast

data item

There has not been a sizeable current budget surplus for over twenty years.

24 March 2025

Academic research

Resource windfalls, public expenditures and local economies

working paper

We show that the redistribution of natural resource tax revenues to non-extractive municipalities stimulates economic activity in local economies.

18 November 2024

Unfunded mandates and taxation

journal article

In 2006, the Chinese central government increased civil servant salaries and pensions and used either unfunded and funded mandates in different areas.

14 March 2024

Cheapflation and the rise of inflation inequality

working paper

Using household scanner data for fast-moving consumer goods, we show that this was accompanied by historically high rates of inflation inequality.

14 August 2024