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UK health spending

Report

Funding the National Health Service is now the biggest single thing the government does. So how has health spending has changed over the last 70 years?

8 November 2019

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Budget or no budget, with borrowing now on the rise again fiscal realities can’t just be wished away

Comment

Had Sajid Javid’s first Budget taken place as planned today he would have unveiled new forecasts showing that following considerable falls in borrowing over the current decade the era of deficit reduction is now at an end. Forecasts for borrowing next year would likely have been at least £30 billion higher than those made by the OBR back in March. We will get some new updates from the OBR tomorrow, but only to take account of statistical and accounting changes since the Spring. Here we provide a more fully updated set of fiscal forecasts which also take account of policy changes over the past nine months. The current political bidding war would lead us to believe that actual outturns for the deficit are likely to be significantly higher again.

6 November 2019

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Barriers to delivering new domestic policies

Book Chapter
Since the 2016 vote to leave the European Union, Brexit has become the policy area that dominates debate in the UK. It defined Theresa May’s government and will undoubtedly consume much of the government’s time and energy over the next few years, regardless of how the Brexit agenda evolves or who is in power.

8 October 2019

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Fiscal targets and policy: which way next?

Book Chapter
The fiscal targets bequeathed by former chancellor Philip Hammond all expire during the current forecast period. Moreover, the government has stated that it wants to keep open the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit and, should this occur, it would require an important decision on how fiscal policy should adjust both in the near and long term. These two issues interact since any new fiscal targets ought to be carefully designed so that they are robust to plausible scenarios for the UK economy, not least around Brexit.

8 October 2019

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Global outlook: sea change

Book Chapter
The phase of synchronised growth the world enjoyed in 2017 and early 2018 has come to an end. Following two years when the global economy finally expanded faster than its long-run average of 3.0%, growth looks set to slow to 2.8% in 2019. This is a significant disappointment compared with forecasts from this time last year, which predicted global growth of 3.2% in 2019.

8 October 2019

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IFS Green Budget 2019

Report

The IFS Green Budget 2019, in association with Citi and the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Christine Farquharson and Paul Johnson, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Sajid Javid as he prepares for his first Budget.

8 October 2019

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Public finances: where are we now?

Book Chapter
Post-financial-crisis, public sector borrowing – the gap between government revenue and spending – has fallen and, at the March 2019 Spring Statement, it stood below its long-run historical average. However, a number of changes have occurred since March, or loom on the horizon.

8 October 2019

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Recent trends to the UK economy

Book Chapter
The overall outlook for economic growth, and its constituent parts, underpins any fiscal event, with implications for the public finances, public spending, taxation and living standards. Growth in the size of the UK economy – known as gross domestic product or GDP – has averaged 1.3% (on an annualised basis) over the last four quarters. That is somewhat below its potential rate of 1.4% (as estimated by the Bank of England) and the 1.5% growth rate for 2019 that we forecast in last year’s Green Budget, and well below the average of 2.0% per year between 2010 and 2015.

8 October 2019

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Spending Round 2019: keeping perspective

Book Chapter
The 2019 Spending Round, published in September 2019, set departmental budgets for the 2020−21 financial year. Chancellor Sajid Javid topped up the spending plans pencilled in by his predecessor, announced spending increases across the board and declared austerity to be over. But these increases must be seen in context: austerity may have ‘ended’ but it is far from undone. And a decade of spending restraint means that even after recent announcements, spending on public services next year will be well below where we might have expected it to be, given historical rates of spending growth and growth in national income.

8 October 2019

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UK economic outlook in four Brexit scenarios

Book Chapter
The global outlook and recent trends in the UK economy point to significant headwinds for growth going forwards. Arguably the most important determinant of the UK’s economic trajectory will be the continuing process of leaving the European Union. Brexit no longer ‘just’ determines future relations with the UK’s largest trading partner and the transition towards them. It has become intertwined with the political outlook and thus broader economic policies, including monetary policy.

8 October 2019

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Money for something

Comment

The Spending Round announcement last week seems a positive move for the sector on the face of it, but raises questions over the the future balance between central control and local discretion writes David Phillips in this article for the MJ.

11 September 2019

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Spending review 2019: Deal or no deal

Report

This Wednesday the Chancellor will allocate funding to departments for the next financial year, 2020-2021. This departmental spending (DEL) is £375 billion this year.

2 September 2019

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Student loans in Japan: Current problems and possible solutions

Journal article

The Japanese higher education sector has seen increases in tuition with stagnant household incomes in a society where family support for university students has been the norm. Student loans from the government have grown rapidly to sustain the gradual increase in university enrolments. These time-based repayment loans (TBRLs) have created financial hardship for increasing numbers of loan recipients and their families. There is some evidence that prospective students from low-income households are forgoing a university education to avoid student loan debt. The Japanese government has introduced some measures including grants and a partial income-contingent loan (ICL) scheme to help alleviate these problems.

29 August 2019

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Modelling alternative student loan schemes for Brazil

Journal article

This paper simulates student loan schemes for Brazil. A copula approach is applied to simulate dynamic earnings paths for graduates. Repayment patterns are then simulated for time-based and income-contingent loan designs.

22 August 2019

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Evaluating and designing student loan systems: an overview of empirical approaches

Journal article

To understand and design student loan systems, realistic earnings and/or income projections for current and future graduates are crucial. In this paper, Current Population Survey (CPS) data from the US is used to demonstrate empirical approaches that can be exploited to simulate lifetime income and earnings profiles for graduates which are needed to understand and design effective and sustainable student loan systems.

1 August 2019