Scottish independence

Oil and gas make Scotland’s underlying public finances particularly volatile and uncertain

Comment

A fallback in oil and gas prices has hit Scotland’s underlying public finance position this year.

27 March 2024

Higher oil & gas revenues boost Scotland’s underlying fiscal position – but a big deficit remains

Comment

Scotland’s notional fiscal deficit fell by £6 billion (3.8% of GDP) in 2022–23, but was – and is set to remain – much higher than the UK’s.

16 August 2023

Lower oil and gas prices set to hit Scotland’s underlying public finances

Comment

Scotland’s underlying fiscal position is set to improve by much less than expected last year, as oil and gas prices fall back.

3 April 2023

Scotland’s relative public finance position is set to improve significantly, but only temporarily

Comment

Scotland’s underlying deficit is falling fast as the UK’s is rising due to oil and gas revenues – but this isn’t forecast to last.

1 December 2022

How could a falling population affect the Scottish Government’s funding?

Comment

A falling population could be a boon for the Scottish Government’s finances within the UK.

2 September 2022

Scotland’s underlying public finances are improving as oil and gas revenues rise – but long-term challenges remain

Comment

Scotland’s implicit budget deficit is falling as oil and gas revenues rise but this wouldn’t prevent hard choices for an independent Scotland.

24 August 2022

The SNP’s manifesto reflects its renewed focus on a future outside the United Kingdom

Comment

The most commented upon is additional money for the English NHS

4 December 2019

GERS shows that Scotland's fiscal position continues to be weak but tells us much more as well

Comment

Today the Scottish Government released the latest version of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) covering 2017–18.

22 August 2018

The SNP’s fiscal plans and Scotland’s fiscal position

Comment

On 30 May the SNP published their manifesto for the upcoming UK parliamentary elections

30 May 2017

Fall in oil price pushes up Scottish deficit to 9.5% of national income in 2015-16

Comment

Today the Scottish Government released the latest version of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) covering 2015–16.

24 August 2016

Scotland’s fiscal position: an updated assessment

Comment

GERS estimates the overall levels of government revenues and spending in Scotland and the implicit budget deficit or surplus in the previous year.

23 March 2016

Scotland’s fiscal position: an update in light of the OBR’s March Forecasts

Comment

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the OBR downgraded forecasts for North Sea revenues for the next five years in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook

19 March 2015

Scotland’s fiscal position improves in 2013–14 but this is set to stall as oil price falls bite

Comment

Today, the Scottish Government published the latest version of its annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) publication

11 March 2015

The Scottish NHS - more financially secure outside the UK?

Comment

The future of the welfare state, and particularly of the NHS, has taken centre stage in the Scottish independence debate in recent days. Given the political rhetoric, there is a clear need for some impartial analysis. In this observation we try to set out some of the facts on both recent changes in NHS spending in England and Scotland, and the prospects for the future whether Scotland is in or out of the Union. Our analysis suggests it is unlikely that independence would make it easier to find additional money for the NHS.

11 September 2014

State of the debate: Funding welfare policy

Report

David Phillips discusses IFS research on how welfare policy might be funded in an independence scenario, drawing our attention to potential funding challenges.

21 August 2014

Taxing an independent Scotland

Journal article

This article considers the implications of independence for the design and functioning of Scotland’s tax system.

18 August 2014

What would the picture for the Scottish Government’s finances be if Scotland votes yes? What if Scotland votes no?

Book Chapter

The outlook for the public finances of an independent Scotland is a key battleground in the referendum debate. Why? Because ultimately it affects how much money individuals and families will have in their pockets, and the quality and quantity of public services they can enjoy in the years ahead.

1 August 2014

Set-up costs for an Independent Scotland are small, but oil revenues are shrinking

Comment

This article was published in the Sunday Times

13 July 2014

Taxation, government spending and the public finances of Scotland: updating the medium term outlook

Report

The potential consequences of independence for taxation, public services, and the welfare system in Scotland are a key battleground in the ongoing campaigning ahead of the independence referendum this September. This briefing note provides a summary of the key findings of recent IFS research on Scotland, including the medium-term outlook for Scotland's public finances.

4 June 2014

Policies for an independent Scotland? Putting the Independence White Paper in its fiscal context

Report

This report assessed the fiscal implications of policies proposed by the Scottish Government in its Independence White Paper in the run up to the 2014 referendum.

4 June 2014