The State of the Nation: economic, fiscal and funding outlook

Understand this issue

How important is the OBR forecast?

podcast

The OBR forecast will underpin the Chancellor’s decisions at the next Spring Forecast.

12 February 2025

Change in selected departmental capital budgets since 2007–08

data item

The Ministry of Justice saw the biggest cuts to its capital budget over the 2010s, but then has seen the largest relative increases since.

11 February 2025

What is this government’s ‘theory of growth’? Nobody knows

comment

"Shifting the performance of an entire economy requires a long-term, consistent and persistent direction." Paul Johnson writes for the Times.

20 January 2025

Policy analysis

Scottish public sector employment and pay

report

How have public sector pay and employment changed in Scotland in recent years and what are the implications of those changes?

18 February 2025

A look ahead to the 2025 Spring Forecast

comment

What are the Chancellor’s options if – and it is very much an if – the upcoming Spring Forecast puts her on track to miss her fiscal targets?

6 March 2025

Scottish Budget: the overall fiscal and spending outlook

report

Funding and spending growth are set to slow. Without a top-up, health spending will be flat in 2025–26 and tricky trade-offs elsewhere loom too.

20 February 2025

Academic research

Resource windfalls, public expenditures and local economies

working paper

We show that the redistribution of natural resource tax revenues to non-extractive municipalities stimulates economic activity in local economies.

18 November 2024

Unfunded mandates and taxation

journal article

In 2006, the Chinese central government increased civil servant salaries and pensions and used either unfunded and funded mandates in different areas.

14 March 2024

Cheapflation and the rise of inflation inequality

working paper

Using household scanner data for fast-moving consumer goods, we show that this was accompanied by historically high rates of inflation inequality.

14 August 2024