IFS Green Budget 2026

The IFS Green Budget 2026, funded by the Nuffield Foundation and in association with Barclays, provided in-depth analysis of the economic challenges and trade-offs facing the Chancellor at the Budget in October.

The new government faces many of the same public finance challenges as its predecessor – sluggish economic growth, high debt and elevated debt interest costs – and has committed to sticking to the same fiscal rules. It inherits plans that would see government borrowing continue to come down, with relatively slow spending growth pencilled in for the rest of this parliament, alongside back-loaded tax rises. Since the last OBR forecast in March, conflict in the Middle East has pushed up inflation and government borrowing costs. At his first Budget, on 28 October, John Healey will need to decide how much he wants to change existing tax and spending plans given economic developments and Andy Burnham’s promises to rewire the state.

At this event, researchers presented key insights from this year’s Green Budget. These included analysis of the UK economic outlook, the key challenges facing the public finances and the options available to the Chancellor. This was followed by a panel discussion and audience Q&A.

IFS and Barclays researchers were joined on the panel by Lord Gus O’Donnell, former Cabinet Secretary and Head of the British Civil Service.