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What happens in a Spending Review?

Explainer
What is a Spending Review? Who started it? How is it different from a Budget? Ben Zaranko explains what happens in a Spending Review.

19 November 2020

Article graphic

What to look out for in the 2020 Spending Review

Comment

The 2020 Spending Review, due to conclude on 25 November, will not be the comprehensive, multi-year review we were originally promised. Instead, the Chancellor has decided to set plans for 2021−22 only – a sensible decision in the circumstances. But while this Spending Review might be more short-term in its nature than usual, it will still contain important announcements.

17 November 2020

Presentation graphic

The future of public service spending

Presentation

This year's Spending Review is likely to be the most difficult to date. At this event, Ben Zaranko looked ahead to the upcoming Spending Review, and outlined the options, opportunities and challenges facing the Chancellor. He was joined by Graham Atkins from IfG, who looked at the impact of Covid on public services.

10 November 2020

Presentation graphic

COVID-19 and councils: impacts, responses and recovery

Presentation

The COVID-19 crisis has been a perfect financial storm for councils, pushing up spending and hitting local income streams. This event explained how the COVID-19 crisis has been affecting local finances and economies, how councils have been responding, and key issues for the next few years as we seek to recover.

9 November 2020

Extra funding will help English councils this year, but big questions remain for 2021 and beyond

Comment

Last week saw significant political debate about the amount of extra funding being given to English councils moving into tier 3 (‘very high alert’) of the government’s COVID alert system. Most of the attention focused on funding to help pay for additional business support measures – such as grants for businesses legally able to open but facing big falls in demand – on top of those being funded directly by central government.

29 October 2020

No free lunch? Some pros and cons of holiday free school meals

Comment

The last few days have seen free school meals in England rocket to the front of the papers, as many MPs, campaign groups and businesses have lined up behind Marcus Rashford’s proposals to extend free school meal vouchers through the school holidays until Easter next year. While the motion was defeated last week, the Labour party has promised to bring the motion again – and several Conservative MPs have already indicated that it may receive a more sympathetic hearing the second time around.

28 October 2020

An image of twenty pound notes in a pile

Counting the cost of COVID-19

Podcast
In this episode we look at how big government borrowing could get as a result of Covid-19 and what the long-term impacts will be.

15 October 2020

Book graphic

Global economic outlook: lessons from the pandemic

Book Chapter
The COVID-19 outbreak and the policy response to it have not just dominated the economic and fiscal developments in 2020 so far; they also set the starting point for the rest of the year and 2021. As long as the virus remains a significant health threat – with no vaccine and no highly effective treatment – the situation remains too volatile to provide a definitive assessment of the global economic impact.

13 October 2020

COVID pandemic signs

IFS Green Budget 2020

Report
The IFS Green Budget 2020, in association with Citi and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation.

13 October 2020

Presentation graphic

IFS Green Budget 2020: Main launch

Presentation

The IFS Green Budget 2020, in association with Citi and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation, analyses the huge economic trauma since the March Budget and the much heightened uncertainty over the path of the economy in coming years. The findings from chapters covering the economic and fiscal outlook were presented at this event.

13 October 2020

Managing much-elevated public debt

Book Chapter
The COVID-19 crisis has pushed up government borrowing substantially, meaning that the Debt Management Office will need to sell a much larger value of gilts than normal. In our central scenario, we forecast the total amount to exceed £1.5 trillion, more than double the Budget forecast in March. While there is tremendous uncertainty around this figure, the total value will easily be the highest in recent history outside of the two world wars.

13 October 2020

Outlook for the public finances

Book Chapter
The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures implemented to contain it will lead to a huge spike in government borrowing this year. We forecast the deficit to climb to £350 billion (17% of GDP) in 2020–21, more than six times the level forecast just seven months ago at the March Budget. Around two-thirds of this increase comes from the large packages of tax cuts and spending increases that the government has introduced in response to the pandemic. But underlying economic weakness will add close to £100 billion to the deficit this year – 1.7 times the total forecast for the deficit as of March.

13 October 2020

Book graphic

The cost of adjustment: emerging challenges for the UK economy

Book Chapter
All indications point to only a thin trade deal (if any) with the European Union after the Brexit transition period ends in December. Despite over four years passing since the referendum, many of the associated economic costs still likely lie ahead. The shock from Brexit will affect different sectors from the COVID shock, meaning that Brexit is likely to cause additional economic pain even as the economy recovers from the virus-driven downturn.

13 October 2020

Book graphic

UK economic outlook: the long road to recovery

Book Chapter
The UK faces a long road to economic recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this chapter, we consider the near-term outlook in depth. Lockdown measures implemented in response to COVID-19 slashed nearly two decades of growth from the UK economy in March and April of this year. Since then, the economy has rebounded strongly on the back of the return of capacity and high levels of policy support.

13 October 2020

Covid gives us the chance to choose how generous benefits should be

Comment

Choices over benefits policy are never easy. There are unavoidable trade-offs between cost, generosity and incentives. This year offers an opportunity to improve what we’ve got and to make a conscious choice over how generous we want the system to be.

12 October 2020