Individual mortality expectations

Published on 29 June 2017

We document evidence on individual expectations of survival to older age and implications of survival "pessimism" for economic behaviour.

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Using data from ELSA, we document a pattern whereby individuals report a lower probability of survival to the ages of 75, 80 and 85 than is given by official life table estimates. We use this information to construct "subjective survival curves" at the individual level. We demonstrate that "survival pessimism" is a potential explanation for the "annuities puzzle" and also explore implications for other economic behaviour including deferal of the state pension and decumulation of wealth in retirement.

    Authors

    Person graphic

    Gemma Tetlow

    Cormac O'Dea
    Cormac O'Dea

    Research Associate Yale University

    Cormac is a Research Associate of the IFS, an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Yale University and Research Fellow at the NBER.

    David Sturrock
    David Sturrock

    Senior Research Economist

    David’s research covers household wealth, intergenerational transfers, social mobility, pensions taxation, and health and work at older ages.

    Presentation details

    DOI
    10.1920/ps.ifs.2024.0093
    Publisher
    IFS

    Suggested citation

    C, O'Dea and D, Sturrock and G, Tetlow. (2017). 'Individual mortality expectations' [Presentation]. London: IFS. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/individual-mortality-expectations (accessed: 22 March 2025).

    Grant

    IFS Retirement Savings Consortium 2016-18

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