IFS Green Budget 2014

SUMMARY

Chapter 1: PUBLIC FINANCES: THE LONG ROAD AHEAD

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1.1 Introduction
1.2 Why a fiscal consolidation is required
1.3 The current consolidation plan
1.4 How the 2013 Autumn Statement changed the picture
1.5 Conclusion

Chapter 2: PUBLIC FINANCES: RISKS ON TAX, BIGGER RISKS ON SPENDING?

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2.1 Introduction
2.2 Uncertainty around the size of the problem
2.3 Risks to future tax revenues
2.4 Uncertainty around future public spending
2.5 Conclusion

Chapter 3: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Global outlook
3.3 Risks to the global economy
3.4 Conclusion

Chapter 4: THE UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Will the recovery maintain its momentum in 2014 and 2015?
4.3 Medium- term recovery slower than usual
4.4 Comparison with other forecasts
4.5 Risks balanced: alternative scenarios for the UK economy
4.6 Conclusion

Chapter 5: HOUSING MARKET TRENDS AND RECENT POLICIES

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Government intervention in the housing market
5.3 Trends in the housing market
5.4 Recent innovations in housing policy
5.5 Conclusion
Appendix 5.1 Measuring changes in house prices

Chapter 6: THE SQUEEZE ON INCOMES

6.1 Introduction
6.2 Changes in incomes
6.3 Changes in living costs
6.4 Differences in inflation rates
6.5 Conclusion

Chapter 7: POLICIES TO HELP THE LOW PAID

7.1 Introduction
7.2 Who are the 'low-paid’?
7.3 Tax and benefit policies
7.4 Policies to increase pre-tax wages
7.5 Conclusion

Chapter 8: STATE SUPPORT FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION AND CARE IN ENGLAND

8.1 Introduction
8.2 Current policy environment
8.3 Extending children’s entitlement to ECEC
8.4 Why the government want to subsidise ECEC (and what is the evidence that it will work)?
8.5 Discussion
8.6 Conclusion
Appendix 8.1 Costing extensions of the free entitlement to ECEC

Chapter 9: WHAT IS DRIVING ENERGY PRICE RISES?

9.1 Introduction
9.2 Bills are rising whilst demand is falling
9.3 Keeping the lights and heating on
9.4 Untangling the bill to make sense of price increases
9.5 What is the problem with energy prices?
9.6 Where next for independent regulation and government intervention?
9.7 Conclusion

Chapter 10: TAXATION OF PRIVATE PENSIONS

10.1 Introduction
10.2 Principles and current practice
10.3 Options for reform
10.4 Conclusion

Chapter 11: BUSINESS RATES

11.1 Introduction
11.2 How business rates work
11.3 Assessing recent policy changes
11.4 Additional policy options
11.5 Conclusion

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix B: Abbreviations

© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, February 2014