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Green Budget

When a government plans to pass a law, it often publishes a green paper. This is an opportunity to share its thinking and provoke discussion.

The Finance Bill is a law Parliament passes to renew taxes, propose new taxes, and maintain the administration of the tax system. It enacts proposals announced in the Budget, which the Chancellor writes in secret. There’s no green paper. This means important decisions about taxes, spending and public policy are made without consultation.

The IFS Green Budget 2021

The IFS Green Budget 2021 is produced in association with Citi and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation. It analyses the big decisions confronting Chancellor Rishi Sunak as he continues to decide how policy should respond to support households, business and public services in the coming year and beyond.

Early output of the Green Budget 2021:

Pressures on the NHS

The COVID-19 pandemic has had deep and far-reaching impacts on the National Health Service (NHS), putting incredible pressure on a health system that was already struggling to meet many of its constitutional targets even before the pandemic. 

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An ever-growing NHS budget could swallow up all of this week’s tax rise, leaving little for social care

This week saw major announcements on health and social care funding. Outside of the usual Budget or Spending Review process, the government announced around £12 billion of additional spending for the Department of Health and Social Care for each year between 2022−23 and 2024−25, alongside a corresponding tax rise.

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An initial response to the Prime Minister’s announcement on health, social care and National Insurance

Today’s announcements constituted a Budget in all but name. £14 billion of tax raised through a supposedly new tax, equivalent increases in spending on health and social care, and an announcement of spending totals for the next three years certainly constitute a major fiscal event. After a quarter century of dithering we may finally have settled on a solution for improving the structure of social care funding, as well as an increase in the amount spent publicly on it. We have a funding package for the NHS which should be enough to prevent post pandemic waiting lists from spiralling. For “unprotected” departments, the announced spending totals might be enough to avoid cuts, though this is far from certain and depends on the extent of future virus-related spending. 

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Could NHS waiting lists really reach 13 million?

Since the start of the pandemic, the number of people waiting for NHS treatment in England has grown by a fifth. 5.3 million people were waiting for treatment in May 2021, up from 4.4 million in February 2020. There has been a particularly sharp increase in the number of people waiting for longer than a year, causing widespread concern over the scale of the NHS ‘backlog’.

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What does the changing economic outlook mean for the Spending Review?

As lockdowns are lifted and more economic activity is resumed, the extent, speed and nature of the UK’s economic recovery from the pandemic will be a crucial determinant of the Chancellor’s options at the upcoming Spending Review, expected this autumn. Recent data releases and independent forecasts have painted a more optimistic picture for the economic recovery in the near term than previous forecasts had suggested. In line with this, Citi’s latest economic forecast suggests that growth in both real and nominal terms will be higher this year than official forecasts expected at the Budget in March.

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The expiry of the Universal Credit uplift: impacts and policy options

New statistics released by the Department for Work and Pensions give us the latest picture of who is claiming Universal Credit (UC) and how much the temporary uplift matters. By February this year there were 5 million UC claimants – double the number seen pre-pandemic. Almost all of these claimants are benefiting from the temporary £20 per week uplift in UC, due to expire at the end of September. 

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This work was funded by the Nuffield Foundation as an early output of the 2021 IFS Green Budget.

Green Budget 2020

Green Budget 2020 cover

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Historic Green Budgets

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The IFS Green Budget 2020, in association with Citi and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation, analyses the huge economic trauma since the March Budget, the much heightened uncertainty over the path of the economy in coming years, and the big decisions confronting Chancellor Rishi Sunak as he ...
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The IFS Green Budget 2019, in association with Citi and the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Christine Farquharson and Paul Johnson, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Sajid Javid as he prepares for his first Budget.
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The IFS Green Budget 2018, in association with Citi, ICAEW and the Nuffield Foundation, is edited by Carl Emmerson, Christine Farquharson and Paul Johnson, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Philip Hammond as he prepares for his Budget ...
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IFS Green Budget 2017, in association with ICAEW and with funding from the Nuffield Foundation. The report looks at the issues and challenges facing Chancellor Philip Hammond as he prepares for his Budget in March.
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The IFS Green Budget 2016 was published on 8 February.
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The report analyses the issues and challenges facing Chancellor George Osborne as he prepares for his final Budget of this parliament.
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As Chancellor George Osborne prepares for his keynote statement on fiscal policy and the economy the IFS Green Budget assesses some of the issues he will have to deal with.
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As Chancellor George Osborne prepares for his keynote statement on fiscal policy and the economy the IFS Green Budget assesses some of the issues he will have to deal with.
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As Chancellor George Osborne prepares for his keynote statement on fiscal policy and the economy the IFS Green Budget assesses some of the issues he will have to deal with.
Report
As Chancellor George Osborne prepares for his keynote statement on fiscal policy and the economy the IFS Green Budget assesses some of the issues he will have to deal with.
Report
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Jonathan Shaw
As the Government and Opposition alike ponder how best to repair Britain's battered public finances, the Green Budget looks at some of the salient economic issues.
Report
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Jonathan Shaw
The Green Budget argues that 20 billion pounds of further tax increases or spending cuts may be needed by the end of the next Parliament if the public finances are to improve as the Treasury hoped in last year's Pre-Budget Report.
Report
Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Jonathan Shaw
The Green Budget 2008 looks at the options open to the Chancellor in his March Budget.
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Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, Andrew Leicester and David Miles
The IFS Green Budget, in collaboration with Morgan Stanley, looks at the Chancellor's options in his forthcoming March Budget.
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Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, Rupert Harrison and David Miles
The Green Budget, produced in collaboration with Morgan Stanley, looks at the options for the Chancellor in his forthcoming Budget.
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Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Zoe Oldfield
The IFS Green Budget 2005 examines the options open to the Chancellor in his forthcoming Budget.
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Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Zoe Oldfield
The IFS Green Budget examines the Chancellor's options for the Budget 2004.
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Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Helen Simpson
The Green Budget looks at the Chancellor's options for his March Budget.
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The Green Budget 2002 looks at the options open to the Chancellor in his March Budget.
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This Green Budget looks at the options available to the Chancellor in his March Budget.
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Lucy Chennells, Andrew Dilnot and Carl Emmerson
The Green Budget looks at the Chancellor's options for his forthcoming Budget.
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Lucy Chennells and Andrew Dilnot
This Green Budget looks at the options available to the Chancellor in his March Budget.
Report
The Green Budget considers the options open to the Chancellor in his forthcoming Budget.
Report
The Green Budget looks at the Chancellor's options for the Budget.
Report
The Green Budget outlines the macroeconomic background, assesses the fiscal stance, and then considers a wide range of tax and spending issues that will be on the Chancellor's pre-budget agenda.
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Andrew Dilnot, Gavin Davies, Christopher Giles and David Walton
This Green Budget looks at the options available to the Chancellor in his November Budget.
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Gavin Davies, Andrew Dilnot, Christopher Giles and David Walton
This Green Budget looks at the options available to the Chancellor in his March Budget.
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Gavin Davies, Davis, Davis, Andrew Dilnot, David Walton and Edward Whitehouse
This Green Budget looks at the options available to the Chancellor in his March Budget.
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Edward Whitehouse, Gavin Davies, Andrew Dilnot, Robinson Robinson and David Walton
The Green Budget looks at the Chancellor's options for the Budget.
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Gavin Davies, Andrew Dilnot, Harold Freeman and Robinson Robinson
The Green Budget looks at the Chancellor's options for the Budget.
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Robinson Robinson
This Green Budget looks at the options available to the Chancellor in his March Budget.