The Green Budget 2005 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson, David Miles and Zoë Oldfield, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. It was produced in collaboration with Morgan Stanley and with additional funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS. |
Chapter 1: SUMMARY
Chapter 2: FISCAL POLICY FRAMEWORK
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Gordon Brown's fiscal rules
2.3 Forecasting the public finances
2.4 Meeting the golden rule
2.5 Meeting the sustainable investment rule
2.6 Reforming the fiscal framework
2.7 Conclusions
Chapter 3: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Recent developments
3.3 The cycle, trend growth and spare capacity
3.4 Risks to the Pre-Budget Report forecast
Chapter 4: PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Short-term projections
4.3 Medium-term prospects
4.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions
4.5 The fiscal rules and the Budget judgement
Chapter 5: FUNDING ISSUES AND DEBT MANAGEMENT
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The outlook for the scale of debt issuance
5.3 How should government finance its cash needs?
5.4 The demand for fixed income assets: pension funds and life insurance companies
5.5 The supply/demand imbalance
5.6 Scope for government action
Chapter 6: THE TAX BURDEN UNDER LABOUR
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The tax burden in historical context
6.3 Government revenues and policy decisions
6.4 Government revenues and general elections
Chapter 7: THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF TAX AND BENEFIT REFORMS SINCE 1997
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Tax and benefit reforms since 1997
7.3 How do we allocate tax/benefit payments to households?
7.4 Distributional analysis of fiscal reforms since 1997
7.5 Conclusion
Chapter 8: ISSUES IN BUSINESS TAXATION
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Corporation tax under pressure
8.3 Small business taxation
Chapter 9: REFORMS TO CHILDCARE POLICY
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Why intervene in the childcare market?
9.3 The childcare tax credit
9.4 Expansion of free nursery provision
9.5 Conclusions
Chapter 10: APPENDICES
Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Budgets since 1979
Appendix C: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix D: Tax revenues ready reckoner
© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2005