The Green Budget 2010 was edited by Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Jonathan Shaw, and copy-edited by Judith Payne. It was produced in collaboration with Barclays Capital and Barclays Wealth and with additional funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at IFS. |
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SUMMARY
Chapter 1: THE UK'S PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY: SURVEYING THE DAMAGE
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Financial crises and the level of potential GDP
1.3 How fast will potential GDP grow beyond the crisis?
1.4 Conclusion
Chapter 2: FISCAL TIGHTENING: WHY AND HOW?
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Effect of the financial crisis and recession on the public finances
2.3 The fiscal policy response
2.4 Alternative timescales for the fiscal tightening
2.5 Conclusion
Chapter 3: FISCAL STIMULUS AND THE CONSUMER
3.1 Introduction
3.2 VAT changes
3.3 Car scrappage
3.4 Conclusion
Chapter 4: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Demand: why such a sharp contraction?
4.3 The growth-inflation trade-off: why so bad?
4.4 The outlook for demand
4.5 Forecast scenarios
4.6 Conclusion
Chapter 5: THE PUBLIC FINANCES AND STERLING
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The origins of currency crises
5.3 The risks of another sterling crisis
5.4 Conclusion
Chapter 6: GREEN BUDGET PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Short-term projections
6.3 Medium-term prospects
6.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions
6.5 The Budget judgement
Chapter 7: OPTIONS FOR FISCAL TIGHTENING: TAX INCREASES AND BENEFIT CUTS
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Options for increasing tax revenue
7.3 Cuts to social security benefits and tax credits
7.4 Conclusion
Chapter 8: PUBLIC SERVICES: DEEP CUTS COMING
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Trends in UK public spending
8.3 Overall outlook for Spending Review 2010
8.4 Departmental spending in 2011-12 and 2012-13: sharing the pain?
8.5 Departmental spending after 2012-13
8.6 Conclusion
Chapter 9: PUBLIC SECTOR PAY AND PENSIONS
9.1 Introduction
9.2 The public sector pay bill
9.3 Cutting pay, shedding jobs or both?
9.4 Cutting pay?
9.5 Cutting pensions?
9.6 Conclusion
Chapter 10: SUPPORT FOR RESEARCH AND INNOVATION
10.1 Introduction
10.2 The patent box
10.3 Direct spending on science and universities
10.4 R&D tax credits
10.5 Conclusion
Chapter 11: REFORMING UK FISCAL INSTITUTIONS
11.1 Introduction
11.2 The rationale for institutional reform
11.3 The Fiscal Responsibility Act
11.4 An enhanced role for the National Audit Office
11.5 An Office for Budget Responsibility
11.6 Conclusion
APPENDICES
Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds
Appendix C: Abbreviations
© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2010