The IFS Green Budget: January 2006

Chapter 1: SUMMARY

Chapter 2: THE FISCAL POLICY FRAMEWORK

2.1 Introduction
2.2 The government's fiscal rules
2.3 The evolution of the public finances since 1997
2.4 Meeting the fiscal rules
2.5 Reforming the fiscal framework
2.6 Conclusion

Chapter 3: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Recent developments
3.3 Medium-term risks
3.4 Short-term risks
3.5 The cycle, trend growth and spare capacity
3.6 Morgan Stanley forecasts

Chapter 4: PUBLIC SPENDING PRESSURES

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Trends in public spending since 1997
4.3 Scenarios for the 2007 CSR
4.4 Longer-term pressures on spending
4.5 Conclusion

Chapter 5: PUBLIC FINANCE FORECASTS

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Short-term projections
5.3 Medium-term prospects
5.4 Alternative macroeconomic assumptions
5.5 The fiscal rules and the Budget judgement

Chapter 6: FUNDING ISSUES AND DEBT MANAGEMENT

6.1 Introduction
6.2 How does gilt issuance affect yields?
6.3 The sustainability of low interest rates
6.4 How should the government fund its borrowing?
6.5 The DMO's current strategy'
6.6 Buying back company pension liabilities
6.7 Conclusion

Chapter 7: TAX CREDITS: FIXED OR BEYOND REPAIR?

7.1 Introduction
7.2 How do tax credits work?
7.3 What went wrong and what has been done?
7.4 Have the new tax credits met their goals?
7.5 Conclusion

Chapter 8: PRODUCTIVITY POLICY

8.1 Introduction
8.2 R&D tax credits
8.3 The National Employer Training Programme
8.4 Planning regulation and economic performance

Chapter 9: COMPANY TAXATION

9.1 Introduction
9.2 International pressures and the European Court of Justice
9.3 North Sea taxation
9.4 The starting rate of corporation tax: an obituary

Chapter 10: TAX AVOIDANCE

10.1 Introduction
10.2 What is acceptable tax avoidance?
10.3 Underlying issues
10.4 Tax Avoidance Disclosure
10.5 'Tax in the Boardroom'
10.6 Conclusion

Chapter 11: APPENDICES

Appendix A: Forecasting public finances
Appendix B: Headline tax and benefit rates and thresholds

© The Institute for Fiscal Studies, January 2006