Healthcare

Spending Review 2025 will set detailed departmental budgets for most of this parliament. We examine the key choices facing the government.

Have increases in NHS waiting lists and waiting times contributed to the growing number of  people claiming working-age health-related benefits? 

Performance against the NHS' 18-week waiting times target has since deteriorated gradually before a sharp fall during the pandemic.

18-week performance has remained around 60% since 2022, despite the list size varying between 6.1 million and 7.8 million during this time. 

Although performance improves in each case, in none of our scenarios does performance reach the 92% target by the end of the parliament. 

In none of our scenarios with medium growth in treatment volumes is the NHS' 18-week target achieved by the end of the parliament.

Modelling of NHS waiting times shows increased activity, demand reduction, and patient prioritisation needed to meet the 18-week waiting time target.

Simulation modelling of NHS elective waiting times in England shows that the government’s 18-week target is unlikely to be met in this parliament.

We borrowed and spent more than other countries to respond to the pandemic and the sharp rise in energy prices two years later.

How is the NHS in Scotland performing, and what does this mean for the Scottish Budget?

After a post-pandemic fall-off, NHS hospital productivity has increased over the last year, with hospital activity growing faster than staffing.