Trade Wars: The end of globalisation? podcast<p>Rising tariffs and trade wars are reshaping global trade. Is this the end of globalisation—and what does it mean for the UK and the world economy?</p>4 June 2025
Why is the government reforming health-related benefits? podcast<p>We discuss the government's welfare reforms aimed at helping sick and disabled people into work, and what the changes mean for health-related benefits</p>14 May 2025
What's the future of corporation tax? podcast<p><span style="color:black;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;">Corporation tax was introduced 60 years ago. Despite many predictions of its decline, it is now forecast to raise record amounts. </span></p>10 April 2025
CIOT/IFS Debate: What next for international tax co-operation? event 16 June 2025 <p>At this online event <span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(0, 0, 0);display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:"Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">an expert panel will debate the future of international tax co-operation.</span></p>
Scaling early childhood development programmes and policies in low- and middle-income countries conference 24 June 2025 <p><span data-teams="true">Thrive, on behalf of IFS and OPM, is hosting a two-day international interdisciplinary conference.</span></p>
IFS Deaton Review: Inequalities in the 21st Century special session at the RES 2025 Annual Conference announcement<p>This year's RES Conference features a special session on the IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities with key IFS contributors to the review.</p>16 June 2025
Jobs landing page<p>At IFS, we recruit and train top-quality economists and professional support staff. We aim to foster a respectful and inclusive working environment.</p>20 July 2022
Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy The Research Centre at the heart of IFS is the CPP.
OBR successive forecasts for productivity growth and out-turn (Index: 2008 = 100) Data Item OBR productivity growth forecasts have historically been over-optimistic: a downgrade to the OBR's forecast could cause a real fiscal headache. 28 March 2025
Public sector net financial liabilities: out-turn and official forecasts Data Item Debt is forecast to stabilise by 2027-28, meeting the debt rule by a narrow margin of £15 billion. 26 March 2025
Debt interest spending as share of national income: out-turn and official forecasts Data Item Debt interest spending is forecast to remain at twice the level it was prior to the pandemic. 26 March 2025
Spring Statement 2025: initial IFS response Comment In response to deteriorating global economic conditions, Rachel Reeves chose to fine-tune her spending plans to continue to meet her fiscal rules. 26 March 2025
Current budget as a share of national income: out-turn and October 2024 forecast Data Item There has not been a sizeable current budget surplus for over twenty years. 24 March 2025
Current budget as a share of national income: out-turn and past forecasts Data Item On average, the OBR has forecast a £23 billion current budget surplus 5 years out, but this has typically not materialised. 24 March 2025
Growth forecasts across different forecasters Data Item The OBR's October 2024 growth forecast underpinning the government’s fiscal plans is more optimistic than most. 24 March 2025
The chancellor cannot hide for ever from her big political choice Comment Rachel Reeves gives herself so little room for manoeuvre that she creates costly uncertainty when the choice is obvious: raise taxes or cut spending 17 March 2025
How important is the OBR forecast? Podcast The OBR forecast will underpin the Chancellor’s decisions at the next Spring Forecast. 12 February 2025
Real GDP per person forecasts Data Item Stronger growth this year and next is not expected to persist into the late 2020s. 30 October 2024
Debt can be redefined but it won’t disappear. Hard decisions are needed Comment "The bind is a real one. Both we and our political leaders need to face up to it." Paul Johnson writes for The Times. 23 October 2023
Outlook for the public finances Report In the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, tax cuts at the upcoming Budget would be extremely difficult to justify. 17 October 2023
Green Budget 2023 Report The Chancellor is in a fiscal bind as low growth and high debt interest payments limit any room for manoeuvre in the forthcoming Autumn Statement. 17 October 2023
Global economic outlook: how hard will we land? Report The fight against inflation continues to dominate the global economic policy agenda. 17 October 2023
IFS/OBR event: Fiscal risks and sustainability Event 28 September 2023 at 14:00 via Slido and Youtube This online event, jointly organised by the OBR and IFS, focused on two particular fiscal risks facing the UK.
Forecasting is hard enough without basing it on fictional assumptions Comment "The power of both the Bank and the OBR is considerable... transparency and reflection are vital." Paul Johnson writes for the Times. 14 August 2023
Don’t cheer end of earnings squeeze: there is more pain to come Comment Paul Johnson writes for The Times on the pain to come for households and the public finances. 19 June 2023
A good start, but the markets may take fright again on Halloween Comment "Only a reversal of direction on that scale was ever going to be enough to reassure the markets and start to get fiscal policy back on track." 18 October 2022
Quantitative easing, monetary policy implementation, and the public finances Report Rising interest rates, quantitative easing and current monetary policy techniques interact to put pressure on the public finances. 14 October 2022
UK outlook: why we need to do things differently Report The UK is the talk of the town, and not in a good way. 11 October 2022