Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and give illustrative cases. I call these practicesconventional certitude, duelling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation,illogical certitude and media overreach.
Authors
![Person graphic](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2022-06/IFS-person-graphic.png?itok=hWCtTSrz)
Charles F. Manski
Journal article details
- DOI
- 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02457.x
- Publisher
- Wiley Online Library
- Issue
- Volume 121, Issue 554, July 2011
Suggested citation
Manski, C. (2011). 'Policy analysis with incredible certitude' 121(554/2011)
More from IFS
Understand this issue
![Christine Farquharson](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2024-07/Christine%20early%20years.jpg?itok=SRfpSwOQ)
Childcare and the early years: what are the new entitlements and how will they be delivered?
explainer
IFS Associate Director Christine Farquharson explains.
1 July 2024
![Edge of rural town](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2024-07/levelling%20up%20feature.jpg?itok=HJBdqLuW)
Levelling up: it’s time to step up
comment
The gap in employment rates between the best- and worst-performing areas is at its widest since 2005, says Christine Farquharson.
30 June 2024
![Christine Farquharson](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2024-07/christine%20schools%20funding.jpg?itok=RB-fjvaH)
Schools funding: What have the two main parties promised?
explainer
IFS Associate Director Christine Farquharson explains.
29 June 2024
Policy analysis
![Welsh town with mountains behind](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2024-06/Welsh-town-feature.jpg?itok=5axb5wZn)
How would the parties’ tax and spending plans affect Scotland and Wales?
report
This ‘explainer’ looks at how the parties’ proposals would affect Scotland and Wales, covering tax, spending, public finances and the constitution.
28 June 2024
![Breakfast club](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2024-06/Breakfast-club.jpg?itok=dEyGgrwT)
Free breakfast clubs in schools: what Labour’s plans would mean for pupils and families
comment
Labour’s manifesto promises free breakfast clubs in all primary schools. This comment examines possible benefits and challenges with the policy.
25 June 2024
![Polling station](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2024-06/Polling-station-school.jpg?itok=uS-l6b-1)
What are the parties’ plans for benefits and taxes?
calculator
Use our simple interactive tool to see how the parties’ plans for benefits and taxes would impact household incomes over the next five years.
24 June 2024
Academic research
![Fiscal Studies - 2024 - June cover](/sites/default/files/styles/portrait/public/2024-06/Fiscal%20Studies%20-%202024%20-%20-%20June%20cover.jpg?itok=mQEwRc_w)
Inequality in Denmark, 1987–2021
journal article
We investigate the progression of income inequality in Denmark over the years 1987–2021.
28 June 2024
![Fiscal Studies - 2024 - June cover](/sites/default/files/styles/portrait/public/2024-06/Fiscal%20Studies%20-%202024%20-%20-%20June%20cover.jpg?itok=mQEwRc_w)
Components of the evolution of income inequality in Sweden, 1990–2021
journal article
This paper documents how the inequality of household equivalent disposable income has changed in Sweden over the period 1990–2021.
28 June 2024
![Fiscal Studies - 2024 - June cover](/sites/default/files/styles/portrait/public/2024-06/Fiscal%20Studies%20-%202024%20-%20-%20June%20cover.jpg?itok=mQEwRc_w)
Fiscal Studies: Volume 45, Issue 2
journal issue
Fiscal Studies: Volume 45, Issue 2
28 June 2024