The mid-term financial strategy

<p>My title is chosen because of the high weight given to political considerations in the reception of the 1990 Budget, and possibly in its planning as well. In this paper I shall discuss the position of the economy at the present time in relation to the trade cycle and also to the electoral cycle. I hope to show that the two cycles are not in fact as closely related to each other as the American theory of the political business cycle has led some commentators to suppose. In the second half of my paper I shall try to tackle the most important issue of the medium-term financial strategy, which the Chancellor, for political reasons, has been obliged to neglect-that is, the crucial issue of Britain's relationship with the rest of the European Community.</p>