Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey and the Assets and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old survey, we estimate the stochastic process that determines both the distribution and dynamics of health care costs. We find that the data-generating process for log health costs is well represented as the sum of a white noise process and a highly persistent AR(1) process. We also find that the innovations to this process can be modelled with a normal distribution that has been adjusted to capture the risk of catastrophic health care costs. Simulating this model, we find that in any given year 0.1% of households receive a health cost shock with a present value of at least $125,000.
Authors
![Eric French](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2022-07/Eric_French.png?itok=BbO0XrCB)
CPP Co-Director
Eric is the Montague Burton Professor of Industrial Relations and Labour Economics at the University of Cambridge and Professor of Economics at UCL.
![Person graphic](/sites/default/files/styles/square_desktop/public/2022-06/IFS-person-graphic.png?itok=hWCtTSrz)
John Bailey Jones
Journal article details
- DOI
- 10.1002/jae.790
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Issue
- Volume 19, Issue 6, November 2004
Suggested citation
Bailey Jones, J and French, E. (2004). 'On the Distribution and Dynamics of Health Costs' 19, Issue 6(2004)
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