The development and validation of an index to predict 10-year mortality risk in a longitudinal cohort of older English adults.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

we aimed to develop and validate a population-representative 10-yearmortalityriskindex for olderadults in England.

METHODS:

data were from 10,798 men and women aged 50 years and older in the population-based EnglishLongitudinal Study of Ageing in 2002/03, randomly split into development (n = 5,377) and validation cohorts (n = 5,421). Participants were asked about their sociodemographics, health behaviours, comorbidities, and functional status in the home-based interviews. Variables that were independently associated with all-cause mortality through March 2013 in the developmentcohort were weighted relative to one another to develop risk point scores for the index that was calibrated in the validationcohort.

RESULTS:

the validated 10-yearmortalityriskindex assigns points for: increasing age (50-59 years: 0 points; 60-64: 1 point; 65-69: 3 points; 70-74: 5 points; 75-79: 7 points; 80-84: 9 points; ≥85: 12 points), male (2 points), no vigorous physical activity (1 point), smoking (2 points), having a diagnosis of cancer (1 point), chronic lung disease (2 points) or heart failure (4 points), and having difficulty preparing a hot meal (2 points), pushing or pulling large objects (1 point) or walking 100 yards (1 point). In the full study cohort, 10-yearmortality rates increased from 1.7% (11/664) in those with 0 points to 95% (189/199) among those with ≥16 points.

CONCLUSION:

this highly predictive 10-item mortalityriskindex is valid in the English population aged 50 years and older. It uses simple information that is often available in research studies and patient reports, and does not require biomarker data to predictmortality.