Achieving the Rio target: CO<sub>2</sub> abatement through fiscal policy in the UK

<p>The research reported in this paper is an application of a large energy-environment-economy model2 of the UK to the medium-term issue of stabilising carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at their 1990 levels by the year 2000, a commitment by the UK government made at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro and taking the form of accession to the Climate Change Convention (the Rio Convention) in June 1992. This commitment has crystallised into a target of reducing emissions in the year 2000 by the equivalent of 10 million tonnes of carbon (mtc) below the level they would otherwise reach under a business-as-usual scenario (Department of the Environment, 1992, 1993 and 1994). Since there is considerable uncertainty in forecasting the level of CO2 emissions in 2000 (157-179 mtc compared with 160 mtc in 1990 - Department of the Environment (1992, p. 7); the 1990 figure has subsequently been revised to 158.6 mtc), it seems sensible to focus on such a target, rather than on achieving a particular level.</p>