More from IFS
Understand this issue

Budget 2026: what should we expect?
What should we expect from the October Budget? IFS economists discuss the choices facing the Chancellor on energy bills, taxes and public spending.
22 October 2026

Is the Chancellor’s spending plan credible?
Higher inflation, rising borrowing and potential spending cuts: what will the Chancellor’s first Budget mean for the economy and households today?
15 October 2026

Has the triple lock been fixed?
How will the new triple lock work, and what will it mean for pensioners and the public finances?
30 September 2026
Policy analysis

Headroom as share of GDP
Faced with a worse forecast, the Chancellor has chosen to allow borrowing to increase, which leaves him less scope to absorb bad news in future.
28 October 2026

Real GDP growth over the forecast
OBR expects growth to slow significantly in 2027, but by 2030-31 they expect the level of GDP to fully catch up with their expectations from March.
28 October 2026

IFS fiscal traffic lights: an explainer of indicators and thresholds
This piece sets out a set of ‘fiscal traffic lights’ for evaluating overall fiscal sustainability.
27 October 2026
Academic research

Discretion versus algorithms: bureaucrats, tax equity and acceptability
We study how replacing bureaucrats’ discretion with algorithmic assessment affects the accuracy, equity, and public acceptance of tax decisions.
11 May 2026

The role of dispersed information in maintaining low interest rates
With domestic-currency debt, a confidence crisis need not cause default, as monetary financing can shift default risk into inflation risk.
17 December 2025

Tax Modelling and Distribution
This chapter provides a review of the literature on the distributional, poverty, and inequality impacts of taxation and public spending in Africa.
16 October 2026