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Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleagues Ben Zaranko and Bee Boileau to discuss the Spring Forecast. The headline numbers haven’t moved much since the autumn, but that stability may not last. With conflict in the Middle East pushing up oil and gas prices, the UK faces a potential negative shock: higher inflation, pressure on interest rates, and a tougher outlook for households, businesses and the public finances.
We discuss what higher energy prices could mean for government policy (from fuel duty to targeted support), why calls to raise defence spending are growing, and the scale of the trade-offs involved. We also look at three key forecast uncertainties: unemployment, migration, and volatile capital gains tax receipts. Finally, we ask how realistic tight future spending plans look ahead of the next Spending Review.
Zooming in discussion questions:
These are a set of questions designed for A Level economics students to discuss, written by teacher Will Haines.
1. Explain the possible impact of the Middle East conflict on the UK economy.
2. Assess the economic impact of the implied increases in defence spending by the government.
3. To what extent can the current rise in UK unemployment be explained by cyclical rather than structural factors?
Host
Helen Miller
Helen joined the IFS in 2007. She has almost two decades of experience analysing UK fiscal policy and providing trusted advice to policymakers.
Participants
Bee Boileau
Bee joined the IFS in 2021 as a Research Economist and works in the Retirement, Saving and Ageing sector.
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