Since the start of the pandemic, the number of people waiting for NHS treatment in England has grown to 6.1 million - the highest level since comparable records began – and is expected to rise further as those who have missed out on care come forward. In February 2022, the government published the NHS elective recovery plan with an ambitious headline target of increasing NHS treatment capacity to 30% above pre-pandemic levels by 2024−25. The plan did not include a firm target for the overall size of the waiting list, owing to the many uncertainties around the future demand for care and the number of ‘missing’ patients who will eventually return to seek NHS care. Sajid Javid, the Health and Social Care Secretary, did say that if around half of the ‘missing demand’ returns, then under the NHS’ assumptions, the waiting list would be falling by around March 2024. This tool allows you to simulate how waiting lists may change over the next four years under different assumptions.
Instructions: Use the sliders or number inputs to adjust the parameters. Hover your mouse over a parameter to get more details. Click "Create New Scenario" to save the current scenario to the graph and create a new one. Click "Reset" to remove all scenarios from the graph and reset the parameters to their default. The default parameters are those we used in the middle scenario of our IFS Observation.