Since the start of the pandemic, the number of people waiting for NHS treatment in England has grown to more than 5 million - the highest level since comparable records began.
Yet the number of people on the waiting list is expected to rise further. Sajid Javid, the Health and Social Care Secretary, recently warned that NHS waiting lists in England could reach 13 million.
Could waiting lists really go that high? This tool allows you to explore how the waiting list might evolve under various assumptions, and to understand the conditions under which Mr Javid's 13 million figure could arise. For more detail on how these scenarios are calculated, and on how NHS waiting lists evolved before and during the pandemic, see our IFS Observation.
Instructions: Use the sliders or number inputs to adjust the parameters. Hover your mouse over a parameter to get more details. Click "Create New Scenario" to save the current scenario to the graph and create a new one. Click "Reset" to remove all scenarios from the graph and reset the parameters to their default. The default parameters are those we used in scenario three of our IFS Observation.