Various indicators point to a deterioration in population mental health – likely contributing to rising disability benefit caseloads

A new IFS report released today, funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and the Health Foundation, finds a range of evidence that mental health has worsened since the pandemic. This is consistent with rising disability benefit claims for mental health. Since the pandemic, the number of 16- to 64-year-olds in England and Wales on disability benefits has risen by 0.9 million to 2.9 million, with 7.5% of 16- to 64-year-olds now claiming. Around 0.5 million – over half – of this rise has come from claimants whose main condition is a mental health problem.

The report finds that:

• Across a range of surveys, there has been a steady increase in reported mental health problems: in the mid 2010s, around 8–10% of working-age people said they had a long-term mental health or behavioural condition; in the latest data, that figure has risen to 13–15%.
• Working-age ‘deaths of despair’ have increased since the pandemic. After adjusting for demographic changes, deaths attributed to alcohol, drugs and suicide were up 24% – around 3,700 deaths – in 2023 compared with pre-pandemic levels for 15- to 64-year-olds in England and Wales. There is a strong link between these deaths and mental health issues, so this rise indicates an increase in the incidence of (severe) mental health problems. These deaths were the main driver of overall increases in working-age mortality in 2023, which stood 5.5% above pre-pandemic levels (early data for 2024, which do not yet include cause of death, indicate a fall-back to 1.5% above pre-pandemic levels).
• In December 2024, 2 million people were in contact with NHS mental health services, including people waiting for care. Among areas with comparable data over time, the number of people in contact with services increased by 36% between 2019 and 2024. The number of people in England with prescriptions for antidepressants has also risen 12% since 2019. These trends will be at least partly driven by attempts to increase access to mental health care but are also consistent with the patterns observed in surveys, benefits data and deaths data.

Eduin Latimer, a Research Economist at IFS and an author of the report, said:

‘The rise in the number of people on disability benefits is a key motivation for the government’s upcoming Green Paper. A range of evidence suggests that mental health across the population has worsened, and – consistent with this – more than half of the rise in disability benefit caseload comes from claims for mental health and behavioural conditions. As well as obviously bad news on their own terms, mental health problems may also be contributing to the rising benefits bill.’

Iain Porter, Senior Policy Adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said: 

‘This is clear evidence of a deterioration in mental health in the population, which goes some way to explaining rising health-related benefit claims. Greater openness about mental health has helped many people to live with conditions which were once hidden, but the rise in deaths of despair also shows that reducing stigma does not eliminate the most serious consequences of rising mental ill health. This trend is real and growing, and we need our government to look carefully at the health of the nation, rather than relying on benefit cuts to fix the problem. 

‘We await the government’s forthcoming Green Paper to see whether it will truly address the underlying causes of increasing poor health, whether it will help more people stay in work when they are struggling with their health, and whether it will make the move into work safer for people who feel at risk of losing support.’

Jo Bibby, Director of Health at the Health Foundation, said:

‘We are right to be concerned over the worsening mental health of the working-age population, which is increasingly reflected in more people seeking disability benefits. Improving health requires strengthening the building blocks of health, like adequate income and quality work. Our Commission for Healthier Working Lives emphasises the need for a radical policy shift to prevent health issues and ensure timely support when they arise. The upcoming Green Paper presents an opportunity for the government, employers and businesses to adopt a new approach that supports everyone.’

Notes to editors:

• Health-related benefits can be grouped into two categories: disability benefits and incapacity benefits.
• This report focuses on disability benefits, which provide additional income to people with disabilities to help cover the additional costs of disability. In England and Wales, the number of 16- to 64-year-olds claiming disability benefits has increased from 2.0 million in 2019 to 2.9 million in 2024 (from 5.4% of 16- to 64-year-olds to 7.5%). The main working-age disability benefit in England and Wales is personal independence payment. It is not means-tested and claimants receive between £1,500 and £9,610 a year.
• Incapacity benefits supplement incomes for people whose health limits their ability to work. The number of 16- to 64-year-olds in England and Wales getting incapacity benefits has increased from 2.1 million in 2019 to 3.0 million in 2024 (from 5.7% to 7.7% of 16- to 64-year-olds). Incapacity benefits are mostly means-tested (only available to adults in low-income families). Under universal credit (UC), claimants assessed to have ‘limited capability for work-related activity’ receive an additional £4,990 a year on top of the rest of their UC award and are exempted from requirements to look for a job. Those assessed as having a ‘limited capability for work’ – indicating a less severe incapacity – do not receive additional support but are exempted from some job-search requirements.