<p>This is a text of a lecture given at the Annual General Meeting of IFS on 20 May 1991. </p><p>At the time when I selected the title for this talk, now many months ago, I could hardly have expected the circumstances of 1991 to produce quite such a striking match as they have for those of 10 years ago. There are many differences, of course. But in each case the Chancellor was sticking to a predetermined and well-advertised discipline for the fight against inflation: in my case, in 1981, the MTFS, and in Norman Lamont's, the ERM. In each case the Chancellor was subjected to fierce academic criticism on grounds of principle as much as practice.</p>