Budget 2009

Briefing and analysis

The Chancellor delivered his Budget statement at on Wednesday 22nd April 2009.

On Thursday 23rd April, the day following the Budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies held a lunchtime briefing. Presentations are available to download below.

Useful publications and resources

Here is a press release detailing our initial response to the Chancellor's statement and an Observation by Robert Chote. Presentations from the IFS briefing can be downloaded here:

• Opening remarks, Robert Chote
• Public finances: two parliaments of pain, Carl Emmerson
• Public spending, Gemma Tetlow
• Direct taxes and benefits, Stuart Adam
• Indirect taxes and environmental measures, Andrew Leicester

Taxing the rich: can it raise any more money?

On 20th April 2009 IFS launched a briefing note which discusses how much scope there is in raising revenue from the very rich. It builds on work in the IFS Green Budget 2009, and on one of the chapters of the the Mirrlees review of the tax system.

Budget 2009: tightening the squeeze?

This IFS briefing note, an update of the forecasts in this year's IFS Green Budget, illustrates that the Government - or its successor - may need to implement further tax increases or cuts in spending plans worth almost £40 billion a year by 2015-16 if the public finances are to be repaired as quickly as the Chancellor hoped in last year's Pre-Budget Report.

Green Budget 2009

The IFS Green Budget 2009 assesses key questions that the Chancellor has to confront in drawing up his 2009 Budget statement. The areas covered are fiscal policy, public spending and the public finances; income tax and national insurance; value added tax and business taxation. Published in collaboration with Morgan Stanley, the Green Budget also discusses the outlook for economic growth, debt management and the government and the financial sector.

Public finances

• The IFS produces a monthly bulletin analysing the government's public finance figures. IFS analysis of the public finance figures is published today (22 April) and provides the provisional outturns for revenues, spending and borrowing in 2008-09.
• On 19 March 2009 Robert Chote produced an article for The Times analysing the prospects for public finances in the light of reduced revenues and an increase in the cost of welfare and national debt.
• On 16 April 2009 Carl Emmerson gave a presentation to the BBC detailing some of the challenges facing the Chancellor in his Budget. .
• On 17 April 2009 Carl Emmerson and Gemma Telow wrote an article 'This is going to hurt' for Public Finance. .

Living standards and poverty

• Average inflation falls, but remains high for some This new analysis of official data shows that older and poorer households are facing much higher average inflation rates than younger and richer ones.
• Forecasting child poverty in 2010 and 2020 This IFS research updates previous analysis of the prospects for child poverty in the UK in 2010-11 and 2020-21.
• Poverty and inequality in the UK: 2008 This Briefing Note provides an update on trends in living standards, income inequality and poverty.

IFS "observations"

Our new "observations" allow us to provide an immediate reaction to policy changes and debate, without issuing a full press release. Recent observations include the following:

• A minimum price for alcohol? In March the annual report of Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, contained a controversial proposal to impose a minimum price of 50p per unit on alcohol. We consider the merits of such a proposal and its potential impact on consumer behaviour, public health and public finances.
• Ministers suggest more realistic child poverty target Abolishing child poverty by 2020 has been one of this Government's defining policy goals for almost a decade. In January ministers tried to make it a little easier, suggesting that it would be enough to cut the proportion of children in poverty on the most familiar definition to 10% rather than the 5% they have so far aspired to.
• Innovation in the recession: willing, but not necessarily ableThe latest annual survey of Business Enterprise Research & Development, released by the Office for National Statistics on 30th January, shows another real increase in R&D spending during 2007, in line with growth in real national income. But will the recession throw this into reverse?.

Treasury documentation

The Treasury's Budget 2009 page links to previous and current Budget documentation.