IFS Annual Lecture 2004: A Strategy for Development: Supporting and Financing Africa's Resurgence

Africa has been through three very difficult decades with extensive conflict, rising poverty, and falls in life expectancy associated with HIV/AIDS. There are a number of interlocking causes associated with historical legacies, including fragmentation, climate and physical geography, and struggles over natural resource rents.

The world has set itself Millennium Development Goals for 2015 which include halving the proportion of people living on one dollar a day (from 1990) and strong targets for human development and the environment. On current trends most or all will be missed. Can Africa generate and sustain a resurgence of development that will move strongly to overcome poverty in the next decade? It will not be easy but great strides are possible with African leadership and rich country support. African policies are improving and we have learned a great deal about the effectiveness of aid.

If action is to be effective it must deal with the causes of past weak performance. This means a powerful focus on governance, peace and security, the investment climate for growth and empowering and investing in poor people so that they can participate in growth. It also requires a lowering of rich country barriers to trade and investment in boosting the supply response to enhanced opportunity.

Effective action will require not only changes in the role and functioning of the state but also substantial finance. This finance will require a large and sustained increase in external assistance with a strong element of front loading, and changes in its quality, together with substantial debt reduction. At the same time, it will require major strides in building up Africa's public finances. A big push for Africa can work: it requires African leadership, a focus on the state and its financing, and a much greater commitment from external partners, particularly on aid, debt relief and trade.