Research and analysis

A special Issue of Fiscal Studies published today by Wiley on behalf of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) provides new analysis of the evolution of mortality levels and socio-economic inequalities in 11 OECD countries, including England, over the last 20-30 years.

While there is still much uncertainty, we now project Scotland’s budget deficit in 2020–21 to have spiked at between 22% and 25% of national income, up from 8.6% of national income in 2019–20, although less than our previous projection. It is also still higher than a forecast deficit of 16% of national income for the UK as a whole for the same year.

In this event, IFS researchers shared the findings from a new report, funded by the Nuffield foundation, that makes projections of the inheritances to be received by those born in the 1960, 1970s and 1980s in the UK, and examines the implications for living standards and economic inequalities both now and in future.

Inheritances have been growing as a share of national income in the UK since the 1970s. This trend looks set to continue as generations at older ages

It is bad enough that parental background is such a strong determinant of educational and labour market success. But at least we all have some individual responsibility for how well we progress, even if some have much better chances than others. Our inheritances we cannot control. And as a new report published today by my colleagues at the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows, these inheritances are likely to play an increasingly important role in constraining social mobility.

For the first time, and co-funded by the Scottish Policy Foundation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies published a range of Scottish Election Briefing Notes on tax, benefits and public spending, and the parties plans for the coming parliamentary term. We presented the main findings of our analysis ahead of the election at a live webinar, in partnership with the University of Glasgow.

This morning the ONS published its first estimates of the public finances over the whole of the financial year 2020-21. Borrowing is estimated to have reached £303 billion, or 14.5% of national income. This is £52 billion less than the £355 billion forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility at the Budget in early March. However, it is a staggering £248 billion, or 12.1% of national income, higher than forecast just before the financial year began – and more to the point, just prior to the economic impact of Covid-19 started to be felt in the UK – in March 2020.

In this briefing note, we assess the key policy announcements made in the DfE’s recent ‘Skills for Jobs’ White Paper around the funding of post-18 education.

Scottish Labour set out a vision for big expansion of the welfare state - with no sense of how much this would eventually cost or how it would be paid for