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Micro-simulating child poverty in 2010 and 2020

Mike Brewer, James Browne, Robert Joyce and Holly Sutherland

Please note: this commentary was revised on 24 February 2009 to remove the incorrect assertion in the summary and conclusion that a bad recession would worsen the combined material deprivation and relative income measure of child poverty. Table 3 shows the opposite to be the case.

The 2008 Pre-Budget Report (PBR) said that 'the Government will take stock of progress towards its 2010 and 2020 child poverty target in the [2009] Budget'. As background to that exercise, this paper updates our previous analysis of the prospects for child poverty in the UK in 2010-11 and 2020-21.

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Press release
The Government would need to spend £4.2 billion extra on tax credits for low-income families to be on track to hit its short-term child poverty target for 2010-11, according to new research.