Downloads
We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.
Authors
Working Paper details
- DOI
- 10.1920/wp.cem.2020.2120
- Publisher
- The IFS
Suggested citation
A, Hortacsu and J, Liu and T, Schwieg. (2020). Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19. London: The IFS. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/estimating-fraction-unreported-infections-epidemics-known-epicenter-application-covid (accessed: 19 April 2024).
More from IFS
Understand this issue
Gender norms, violence and adolescent girls’ trajectories: Evidence from India
24 October 2022
Raising revenue from closing inheritance tax loopholes
18 April 2024
Sure Start achieved its aims, then we threw it away
15 April 2024
Policy analysis
IFS Deputy Director Carl Emmerson appointed to the UK Statistics Authority Methodological Assurance Review Panel
14 April 2023
ABC of SV: Limited Information Likelihood Inference in Stochastic Volatility Jump-Diffusion Models
We develop novel methods for estimation and filtering of continuous-time models with stochastic volatility and jumps using so-called Approximate Bayesian Compu- tation which build likelihoods based on limited information.
12 August 2014
Is there really an NHS productivity crisis?
17 November 2023
Academic research
Understanding Society: minimising selection biases in data collection using mobile apps
2 February 2024
Sample composition and representativeness on Understanding Society
2 February 2024
Robust analysis of short panels
8 January 2024