Follow us
Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS
Home Publications When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?

When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?

Cemmap Working Paper CWP11/20

We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European CDC. We work with a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. This seems to accurately describe the trajectory of the epidemic in China. We use our model to predict when the peak of the epidemic will arise in terms of new cases or new deaths in other large countires. We find that for the UK, this peak is mostly likely to occur within the next two weeks. The total number of cases per day will peak at around 8000 yielding a little more than 255,000 cases in total.

More on this topic

Cemmap Working Paper CWP09/22
We compare two approaches to using information about the signs of structural shocks at specific dates within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR): imposing ‘narrative restrictions’ (NR) on the shock signs in an otherwise set-identified SVAR; and casting the information about the shock ...
Cemmap Working Paper CWP07/22
Economists are obsessed with rankings of institutions, journals, or scholars according to the value of some feature of interest.
Cemmap Working Paper CWP05/22
We designed a coaching program that focused on one aspect of teacher quality—teacher-child interactions—that researchers in education and psychology have argued is critical for child development and learning.
Cemmap Working Paper CWP04/22
It is often desired to rank different populations according to the value of some feature of each population. For example, it may be desired to rank neighbourhoods according to some measure of intergenerational mobility or countries according to some measure of academic achievement.
Cemmap Working Paper CWP44/21
We study a dynamic ordered logit model for panel data with fixed effects.