The NHS turns 70 next month, and it appears increasingly likely that the government is going to announce a health spending settlement for the next few years.

Health spending increases over the past eight years have averaged only 1.4% per year, compared with almost 4% between 1949 and 2009.

While the NHS has managed to do a lot more despite limited funding increases – activity on a number of measures is up considerably – there are visible signs of strain. In particular, high-profile national targets – for example the 4 hour A&E wait target – are being missed and do not look likely to be met soon.

While a consensus appears to be growing that health spending needs to increase, less attention has been paid to how the government will pay for it.

Read the full article on Public Finance.