Future challenges for health and social care provision in the UK

The supply of health and social (long-term) care services in the UK will need to substantially increase in coming decades to meet growing demand pressures. Expanding supply will mean increasing the quantity of inputs used to produce health and care services (such as medical staff and equipment) or increasing the productivity of those inputs. In practice, both will be necessary, and both will require the government to overcome a range of challenges. In this paper, we discuss those challenges and their policy implications. We survey the evidence on the returns to inputs to healthcare production and relate this to recent policy initiatives. We consider recent trends in health and social care productivity and the scope for future improvements. We examine some of the additional challenges specific to the adult social care sector, before considering the fiscal implications of increasing the supply of health and social care services under the UK’s current funding model.